On the novel principle of earthquake and its predictability

LU Kun-Quan; CAO Ze-Xian

doi:10.7693/wl20180402

PHYSICS > 2018 > 47(4): 211-229. > DOI: 10.7693/wl20180402

LU Kun-Quan, CAO Ze-Xian. On the novel principle of earthquake and its predictability[J]. PHYSICS, 2018, 47(4): 211-229. DOI: 10.7693/wl20180402

Citation:

LU Kun-Quan, CAO Ze-Xian. On the novel principle of earthquake and its predictability[J]. PHYSICS, 2018, 47(4): 211-229. DOI: 10.7693/wl20180402

Citation:

LU Kun-Quan, CAO Ze-Xian. On the novel principle of earthquake and its predictability[J]. PHYSICS, 2018, 47(4): 211-229. DOI: 10.7693/wl20180402

PDF (4017 KB)

On the novel principle of earthquake and its predictability

LU Kun-Quan^†,
CAO Ze-Xian

Institute of Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing National Laboratory for Condensed Matter Physics,Beijing 100190,China

More Information

Received Date: February 07, 2018
Published Date: April 11, 2018

Graphical Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Earthquake is a natural disaster that causes enormous loss to human society.Earthquake prediction is a major challenge to scientists from seismology and other relevant fields.However, the mechanism of earthquake is far from clear, and the mainstream view in the international seismology community is that earthquake is unpredictable. Based on some new concepts and knowledge from physics, the current article scrutinizes the gestation and occurrence of earthquake from a novel perspective, formulates a rational mechanism for earthquake. It is dissected that the basis of the erroneous cognition of earthquake unpredictability originates in misconceptions about the seismic principles and in a misunderstanding to the self-organized criticality. Earthquake is indeed consistent with the laws of self-organized criticality, that it is in principle impossible to make a medium-or long term prediction, yet the short-term predictability for earthquake should not be excluded. Prerequisites for a successful short-term earthquake prediction are as follows: a correct understanding to the principle of earthquake, availability of sufficient precursors pertinent to earthquake gestation and occurrence, geological data at large concerning the regions of interest. Traditional seismology is based on the continuous solid medium assumption, by which earthquake is attributed to the brittle fracture of rocks, as summarized in the concept of elastic rebound. This viewpoint is not at all in accordance with actual observations, unable to explain a lot of earthquake phenomena, and furthermore unable to establish truly pertinent earthquake precursors,consequently it concludes the unpredictability of earthquake. As the crust is composed of rock blocks and fault gouges there between, it must be treated as a discrete system, and knowledge of granular matters can be applied to understand the gestation and triggering of earthquakes. The fundamental picture for a seismogenic process is that the tectonic forces are transmitted in a form of force chain and the rock blocks move in the stick-slip fashion. By carefully analyzing the distributions of the strength and the tectonic force upon the crustal rocks with depth, we formulated a mechanism of earthquake in that rock blocks flow via the plastic sliding, and the earthquake is essentially a jamming-unjamming transition confronted by rock blocks. Thus the elastic rebound as mechanism for earthquake can be abandoned. Our novel earthquake principle and the relevant understanding to the earthquake processes can explain many seismologic phenomena that usually could not be understood in terms of traditional seismology, for instance, the heat-flow paradox is resolved,and the cause of deep-focus earthquake also becomes clear. A feasible pathway to obtain the earthquake precursors correctly and to realize the short-term prediction of earthquake is also presented.
- earthquake prediction,
- earthquake principle,
- granular physics,
- force chain,
- stick-slip movement,
- plastic sliding,
- jamming-unjamming transition,
- self-organized criticality

FullText(HTML)

References (95)

References

[1]	Shoichi S. Nagoya Daigaku Shinbun，1968，No. 300
[2]	Anderson PW. Science，1972，177：393
[3]	Bak P. How Nature Works. New York：Copernicus Press. 1996 [李炜，蔡勖译. 大自然如何工作. 武汉: 华中师范大学出版社，2001
[4]	陈运泰. 中国科学(D辑)，2009. 39：1633
[5]	Geller R J. Jackson D D. Kagan Y Y et al. Science，1997，275：1616
[6]	http://www.nature.com/nature/debates/earthquake/index.html?foxtrotcallback=true
[7]	Shearer P M. Introduction to seismology. 2nd Ed. New York：Cambridge University Press，2009
[8]	Hough S. Predicting the Unpredictable——The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction. Princeton：Princeton University Press，2010
[9]	Hough S. Confusing Patterns with Coincidences. New York Times，April 11，2009
[10]	Ichiro Kawasaki. What are slow earthquake. NHK Publishing Inc.，2006 [川崎一郎著. 陈会忠，黄伟，黄建平等译. 何为慢地震. 北京：地震出版社，2013]
[11]	吴忠良. 中国地震. 1998. 14：1
[12]	马瑾. 科学通报. 2016，61：409
[13]	Bak P，Tang C，Wiesenfeld K. Phys. Rev. Lett.，1987，59：381
[14]	Bak P，Tang C. J. Geophysical Research，1989，94：15635
[15]	Bak P，Christensen K，Olami Z. In：Nonlinear Dynamics and Predictability of Geophysical Phenomena. edited by Willian I et al. Washington，D. C：International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics and the American Geophysical Union，1994. 69
[16]	Corral A. Clustering L T. Phys. Rev. Lett.，2004，92：108501
[17]	Huang Y，Saleur H，Sammis C et al. Europhys. Lett.，1998，41：43
[18]	Rundle J B，Holliday J R et al. Operational Earthquake Forecasting，October 2015，DOI：10. 13140/RG. 2. 1. 2632. 3920
[19]	Peters O，Hertlein C，Christensen K. Phys. Rev. Lett.，2001，88：018701
[20]	Nagel K，Schreckenberg M. J. Phys. I France，1992，2：2221
[21]	Kerner B S. Phys. Rev. Lett.，1998. 81：3797
[22]	Held G A，Solina D H et al. Phys. Rev. Lett.，1990，65：1120
[23]	Altshuler E，Ramos O et al. Phys. Rev. Lett.，2001，86：5490
[24]	Aegerter C M，Günther R，Wijngaarden R J. Phys. Rev. E，2003，67：051306
[25]	Aegerter C M，Lorincz K A et al. Phys. Rev. Lett.，2004，92：058702
[26]	Schick K L，Verveen AA. Nature，1974，251：599
[27]	Moriyama O，Kuroiwa N et al. Phys. Rev. Lett.，1998，80：2833
[28]	Lherminier S，Planeta R et al. Revista Cubana De F´Isica，2016，33：55
[29]	Huang Y，Saleur H，Sammis C et al. Europhys. Lett.，1998，41：43
[30]	Garber A，Hallerberg S，Kantz H. Phys. Rev. E，2009，80：026124
[31]	Ramos O，Altshuler E，Maløy K J. Phys. Rev. Lett.，2009，102：078701
[32]	周仕勇，许忠淮. 现代地震学教程. 北京：科学出版社，2010
[33]	赵克常. 地震概论. 北京：北京大学出版社，2012
[34]	朱良保. 基础地震学. 北京：科学出版社，2016
[35]	万永革. 地震学导论. 北京：科学出版社，2016
[36]	Reid H F. Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission.Washington，D. C：Carnegie Institution of Washington，1910. 192
[37]	Reid H F. Bulletin of the Department of Geology. 1911. 6：413
[38]	Jordan T H，Chen Y T，Gasparini P et al. Annals of Geophysics. 2011，54：315
[39]	陈运泰. 热流佯谬// 10000 个科学难题·地球科学卷. 北京：科学出版社，2010
[40]	Scholz C H. The Mechanism of Earthquake and Faulting (2nd Ed). Cambridge Univ. Press，2002
[41]	陈颙，黄庭芳，刘恩儒. 岩石物理学. 中国科学技术大学出版社，2009
[42]	Lachenbruch A H，Sass J H. Geophysical Research Letters，1988，15：981
[43]	Kano Y，Mori J et al. Geophysical Research Letters，2006，33：L14306
[44]	Fulton P M，Brodsky E E，Kano Y et al. Science，2013，342：1214
[45]	Scott D R. Nature，1996，381：592
[46]	Melosh J. Nature，1996，379：601
[47]	Sholz C H. Nature，1996，381：556
[48]	Kanamori H，Brodsky E E. Rep. Prog. Phys.，2004，67：1429
[49]	中国地震局监测预报司编. 2004年印度尼西亚苏门答腊8.7级大地震及其对中国大陆地区的影响. 北京：地震出版社，2005
[50]	胡进军，谢礼立. 地球科学进展，2011，26：39
[51]	Rosakis A J，Samudrala O，Coker D. Science，1999，284：1337
[52]	Frohlich C. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci.，1989，17：227
[53]	Green H W，Houston H. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci.，1995，23：169
[54]	Geller R J，Mulargia F，Stark P B. Why We Need a New Paradigm of Earthquake Occurrence. In：Gabriele Morra et al. Subduction Dynamics：From Mantle Flow to Mega Disasters. Geophysical Monograph 211. First Edition. 2016 American Geophysical Union，Published by JohnWiley & Sons，Inc，2016
[55]	Ben-Menahem A. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America，1995，85：1202
[56]	Geller R J. Nature，2011，472：407
[57]	陆坤权，厚美瑛，姜泽辉等. 物理学报，2012，61：119103
[58]	陆坤权，曹则贤，厚美瑛等.物理学报，2014，63：219101
[59]	杨树铎(主编)，地球科学概论. 第2 版. 杭州：浙江大学出版社，2001
[60]	张培震，邓起东，张国民等. 中国科学(D辑)，2003，33：12
[61]	王琪，张培震，牛之俊等. 中国科学(D辑)，2001，31：529
[62]	陆坤权，刘寄星. 物理，2004，33：629，713
[63]	http://cires. colorado.edu/~bilham/CREEPDATA/HaywardCreepmeterAccess.htm
[64]	蒋靖祥，尹光华，王在华等. 岩石力学与工程学报，2004，23：4072
[65]	彭华，马秀敏，姜景捷. 地质力学学报，2008，14：97
[66]	范桂英，拾礼勤，李兰生. 地震学刊，2002，22：7
[67]	邱泽华，张宝红，池顺良等. 中国科学(D辑)，2010，40：1031
[68]	张国民，傅征样，桂望泰. 地震预报引论. 北京：科学出版社，2001
[69]	Barnes B. J. Non-Newtonian Fluid Mech.，1999，81：133
[70]	Weisskopf V F. American Journal of Physics. 1986，54：110
[71]	Kohlstedt D L，Evans B，Mackwell S J. J. Geophys. Research. 1995，100：17587
[72]	Wintsch R P，Yeh MW. Tectonophysics，2013，587：46
[73]	BehrWM，Platt J P. Earth and Planetary Science Letters，2011，303：181
[74]	Hoek E，Brown E T. Inter. J. Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences，1997，34：1165
[75]	Fulton PM，Brodsky E E，Kano Y et al. Science，2013，342：1214
[76]	席道瑛，徐松林. 岩石物理学基础. 合肥：中国科学技术大学出版社，2012
[77]	Barton N J. Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering，2013，5：249
[78]	Handy M R. Journal of Structural Geology，1994，16：287
[79]	Rosenberg C L，Handy M R. J. Metamorphic Geol.，2005，23：19
[80]	Meade C，Jeanloz R. Phys. Rev. B，1990，42：2532
[81]	Duffy T S，Hemley R J，Mao H K. Phys. Rev. Lett.，1995，74：137
[82]	Makse H A，Gland N，Johnson D L et al. Phys. Rev. E，2004，70：061302
[83]	Mehta A. Granular Physics. London：Cambridge University Press，2007. 263
[84]	Agnolin I，Roux J N. Phys. Rev. E，2007，76：061304
[85]	张勇，许力生，陈运泰. 地球物理学报，2009，52：379
[86]	徐锡伟，陈桂华，于贵华等. 地球物理学报，2010，53：2321
[87]	Liu A J，Nagel S R. Nature，1998，396：21
[88]	Biroli G. Nature Phys.，2007，3：222
[89]	Liu A J，Nagel S R. Annu. Rev. Condens. Matter Phys. 2010，1：347
[90]	Keys A S，Abate A R，Glotzer S C et al. Nature Physics，2007，3：260
[91]	Olsson P，Teitel S. Phys. Rev. Lett.，2007，99：178001
[92]	张国民，汪素云，李丽等. 科学通报，2002，47：663
[93]	Cicerone R D. Ebel J E，Britton J. Tectonophysics，2009，476：371
[94]	陆坤权，厚美瑛，王强等. 科学通报，2011，56：383
[95]	张培震，徐锡伟，闻学泽等. 地球物理学报，2008，51：1066

[1]	MA Teng-Fei, WU Zhong-Liang, YANG Xiao-Lin. Video recording of classroom evacuation during the April 20，2013，Lushan，Sichuan，China，earthquake： preliminary analysis and implication for the statistical physical models of escape panic[J]. PHYSICS, 2013, 42(05): 341-345. DOI: 10.7693/wl20130505
[2]	Chen Chien-chih, John B. Rundle, Donald L. Turcotte , YIN Xiang-Chu. Theory of critical transitions helps understand seismicity-based earthquake forecasting techniques[J]. PHYSICS, 2013, 42(05): 329-333. DOI: 10.7693/wl20130503
[3]	On the plastic deformation mechanism of metallic glasses[J]. PHYSICS, 2010, 39(09): 628-630.
[4]	Soft matter physics——a new field of physics[J]. PHYSICS, 2009, 38(07): 453-461.
[5]	Selective nontemplated adsorption of organic molecules on nanofacets and the role of bonding patterns[J]. PHYSICS, 2007, 36(06): 427-429.
[6]	Reversible ultrahigh density data storage on a self－assembled organic thin film[J]. PHYSICS, 2006, 35(12): 1000-1002.
[7]	Novel self-assembled low dimensional semiconductor structures[J]. PHYSICS, 2006, 35(08): 654-658.
[8]	Self-assembled nanostructures in strained heteroepitaxy[J]. PHYSICS, 2006, 35(08): 626-628.
[9]	A brief history of power law distributions[J]. PHYSICS, 2005, 34(12): 889-896.

Cited By

Cited by

Periodical cited type(2)

1.	夏蕊芳，程国庆. LM-BP神经网络在震后建筑损失评估模型中的应用. 地震工程学报. 2019(01): 208-214 .
2.	谭文慧. 基于大数据应力监测系统建立预测地震. 区域治理. 2019(39): 109-111 .

Other cited types(5)

Get Citation

PDF

XML

Article views (305) PDF downloads (1648) Cited by(7)

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Abstract

References

On the novel principle of earthquake and its predictability

Abstract

References

Related Articles

Cited by

Periodical cited type(2)

Other cited types(5)

Catalog

On the novel principle of earthquake and its predictability

Abstract

References

Related Articles

Cited by

Periodical cited type(2)

Other cited types(5)

Catalog

Export File

Citation

Format

Content