Quantitative earthquake prediction from the perspectives of nonlinear and statistical physics

In the scientific literature we frequently find earthquakes referred to as a bifurcation in nonlinear dynamics or a phase transition in statistical physics. In this article we examine how we can understand earthquake processes in terms of barrier crossing, critical fluctuations, and critical slowing down, starting from our understanding of bifurcation theory in nonlinear dynamics and Landau’s theory of phase transitions in statistical physics. We will then explain how quantitative earthquake prediction is possible, combining universal spatial and temporal signatures that must occur prior to a large earthquake.